You’re In Good Hands

No, this doesn’t have anything to do with insurance, though yes, there’s no shortage of mayhem in our country. No, there aren’t any Trump tweets. Yes, Joe Biden struggles to put successive sentences together. No, we’re not in a recession because Joe Biden said so, though yes, we actually are because of you know, reality. But no, the reason that you’re in good hands clearly isn’t related to the president, yes, this has everything to do with my not having made a career out of being wrong. You know, like economists? No, I’m not happy we’re in a recession because it proves what I identified as the most likely outcome – when economists didn’t in January. Just as I wasn’t happy when I was right last year when I said inflation was anything but transitory. This is what happens when people trade a great policy president for the dude from Weekend at Bernie's...because they can’t handle mean tweets. So, about the whole recession thing... When I first uttered the likelihood that we were entering a recession in January, it was based on hard data I monitor. As I mentioned in my March 11th Q&A... The reason I’ve brought up the ‘r’ word, starting in January, and this is my best-case recession argument (as you put it), comes down to these realities. Small businesses have fired more than they’ve hired in 2022. Wage growth has been 5.1% year over year. Inflation has been 7.9% year over year . The gap between income growth and inflation is widening. 75% of Americans are now adjusting consumer behavior due to gas/price inflation